[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 01 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 36.9N 46.5W AT 01/1500 UTC
MOVING NE AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. LISA IS MOVING AWAY
FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY LESS
SHEAR. THERE IS LITTLE TIME LEFT FOR LISA TO INTENSIFY TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH AS SHE WILL MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN
WATERS WITHIN 12 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-39N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
43W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 57W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS S OF CUBA FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 73W-79W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 17N80W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 9N20W 12N30W 11N55W 10N80W .
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-19W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W...AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-59W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
77W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 32N78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 92W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 17N80W ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 24N55W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 15N-33N BETWEEN
45W-65W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N50W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING
THE LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN
THE E ATLC NEAR 21N37W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN
30W-45W. THIS SYSTEM IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
MID-LATITUDES. MID/UPPER INDUCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR 32N37W.  TWO
OTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED AT 30N22W...AND 32N5W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 21N37W IS AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AT 15N23W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 15W-35W.  TO THE SW OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 21N37W IS AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 13N49W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 5N-17N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA




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