[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 30 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31.5N50.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW
FROM THE GALE TO 20N57W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE GALE EXCEPT OVER THE E QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 7N19W 5N35W 9N55W 8N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 3N29W 7N41W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND NW CARIBBEAN...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16.5N89W
NE ACROSS THE W COAST OF CUBA TO BEYOND 32N77W. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE
60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND EVEN HIGHER
OVER E TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE SW
LOUISIANA COAST TO 27.5N94.5W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT ABOUT 25N.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
THE 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N50W TO 20N61W TO
11N80W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT UP TO 15 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A 60-70 KNOT JET IS LOCATED ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N64W TO 19N50W TO 24N35W. THE JET THEN WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO THE ESE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N66W TO 25N63W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A DYING
COLD FRONT TO 21N65W TO 20N73W.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E PART OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N15W TO 20N22W. AT THE SURFACE A 999 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 34N11W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO
27N13W TO 24N22W.

$$
CAB

WWWW
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