[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 30 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
DEEP LAYERED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W AND THE 999 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 25N50W TO
17N55W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING N. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 700 NM
E OF BERMUDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW N OF REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COMPLETELY
SURROUND THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF 32.5N51W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N19W 7N44W 11N54W 10N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3W-7W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE 3N28W-7N40W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 11.5N FROM
37W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED N OF W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
WITH FLOW EXTENDING N OVER THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC
W OF 68W AND THE CARIBBEAN N OF 10N W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT IN
THE NW ATLC N OF 26N FROM 70W-80W. FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DOT GULF...W ATLC...AND CARIBBEAN WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 23N FROM 65W TO THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

W ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND REST OF CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WITH THE MEAN AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N55W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W.
EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW ARE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN AXIS WITH ONE CENTERED WITHIN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NEAR
26N60W...A SECOND MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N55W...AND THE THIRD IS
THE DEEP LAYERED LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W-68W. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N63W EXTENDING S ALONG 26N64W THEN SW TO 21N71W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS ALONG
22N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS N AND W OF THE FRONT FROM
57W-70W. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS BEING GENERATED.
THE COLD AIR CLOUDS ARE N AND W OF THIS FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 50W.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE E
ATLC ALONG 20N31W TO 32N31W THEN NW N OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20W-40W.
AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE IS FROM 23N-35N BETWEEN 30W-46W WHERE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEING GENERATED.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS S WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 32N31W TO 20N30W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC
N OF 25N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N12W. AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N11W EXTENDING SW OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N14W TO 28N21W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE 33N19W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N9W THUS NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION IN THE
REGION.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N38W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE E
ATLC NEAR 20N31W. A SECOND MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICS
NEAR 5N18W. THUS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

$$
WALLACE



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