[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 29 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC ABOUT 1600 MILES W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N48W AND IS BECOMING ELONGATED EAST/WEST. THE
SURFACE 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 28N48W WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING ENE ALONG 31N45W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N42W
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S AND W ALONG 23N42W TO
17N56W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT E TO 29N36W.
ONLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRESENT FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 39W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
31W-39W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N21W 9N36W 7N47W 10N55W
9N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 23W-37W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY DOT THE
AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 25W AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER
THE E UNITED STATES WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 13N FROM
70W-100W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF S OF
26N...THE W ATLC S OF 26N W OF 70W AND THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER BERMUDA S ALONG 26N63W TO
THE NE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N58W. AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING SW TO JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N89W WHERE
RETURNS NW AS A WARM FRONT TO 23N93W. WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS EXISTS W OF 65W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS OF 27N63W. THE S CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATE BY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE DRY AIR CONTINUING S TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
N OF 21N FROM 33W-55W WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N29W NW TO BEYOND 32N35W. AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE/TROUGH IS GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. THIS IS ALSO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE NE ATLC.

E ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 27N FROM 10W-30W
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N11W
EXTENDING SW JUST OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 28N25W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES W TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED
SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM BEYOND 33N26W ALONG 30N20W
TO 33N14W...THUS THERE IS NO CONVECTION WITHIN THE REGION. AN
EAST/WEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE SE ATLC ALONG
9N/10N.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net