[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 29 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC ABOUT 1550 MILES W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N46W WITH THE SURFACE 999 MB GALE CENTER NEAR
29N47W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG 31N44W TO
29N41W WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S AND W ALONG 23N43W
TO 21N52W. ONLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE GALE CENTER WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND COVER THE AREA FROM 22N-33 BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 7N25W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA WITHIN
45/60 NM OF 4N FROM 8W-11W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
6N25W-11N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC AND N CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE E UNITED
STATES WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 17N FROM 74W-100W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...W ATLC S OF 30N W OF
70W AND THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE THE GREAT ANTILLES AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS JUST W OF BERMUDA S ALONG
25N66W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N64W. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W FOLLOWING THE W COAST S TO 16N93W. WITH
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXISTS W OF 70W. ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE S
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATE BY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE DRY AIR
CONTINUING S TO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
N OF 17N FROM 34W-55W WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE BEING
ADVECT N INTO THE SYSTEM WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N52W SE
TO 23N42W THEN NE TO 24N39W. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 24N29W NW TO BEYOND 32N35W. AN AREA OF DIFLUENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THIS IS
ALSO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC.

E ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 27N E OF 30W TO THE
COAST OF PORTUGAL AND NW AFRICA WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WELL
N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N13W EXTENDING SW JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 29N21W THEN W TO THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 29N41W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
BEYOND 33N26W ALONG 31N20W TO BEYOND 32N15W...THUS THERE IS NO
CONVECTION WITHIN THE REGION. AN EAST/WEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS COVERS THE SE ATLC ALONG 9N/10N.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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