[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 28 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 920 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST
AZORES ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE 999 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
29N45W...MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST INCLUDES
AN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...WHICH COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 37W AND 52W...WITH WIND FROM THE EAST 30 TO 35 KT AND
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WIND IS FORECAST TO
BE NORTH OF 31N IN TWENTY FOUR HOURS.  AN OCCLUSION GOES FROM
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 29N41W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 23N43W 21N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
46W-48W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE OCCLUSION
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 42W-46W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 34W-41W.

ANOTHER SURFACE 998 MB GALE CENTER IS 300 NM ESE OF THE EASTERN
MOST AZORES ISLAND NEAR 36N19W. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 29N20W 29N40W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 7N40W 8N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-110W WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 90W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA.  ON THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W
KENTUCKY NEAR 37N88W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W.  WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NE E
OF 90W...AND ARE 15-20 KT FROM THE SW W OF 90W.  A SURFACE COLD
FRONT RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N68W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W...TO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32W BETWEEN 65W-68W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
INLAND HONDURAS AND INLAND NICARAGUA.  ON THE SURFACE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER NW NICARAGUA FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 86W-88W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
N VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 65W-71W
MOVING W WITH THE EASTERLIES.

THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W-70W.  A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH AT 28N45W AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 28N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
30W.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 15W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS W IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING NE.

$$
FORMOSA



WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net