[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 29 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
NON-TROPICAL DEEP LAYERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC ABOUT 1600 MILES W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD STILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
HOWEVER FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N46W WITH THE SURFACE
1002 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 27N44W. OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS N TO A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N41W WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG
24N41W THEN SW TO 21N57W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING NW. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N-35N
BETWEEN 30W-48W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N18W 6N30W 9N45W 5N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 4W-30W AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 34W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
MOVING ACROSS N MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS TO THE NW GULF COAST.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N75W SW TO W CUBA
NEAR 23N82W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 68W-90W. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N79W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W ALONG 25N87W 22N93W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE US EAST COAST FROM
33N77W ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF
NEAR 26N82W OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ARE MAINLY N OF THE 30N WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
30N73W TO BEYOND 32N74W. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITHIN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF ABACO ISLAND NEAR
28N75W MOVING RAPIDLY E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 15N80W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ALL OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 58W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
NOW CROSSED INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC IS FORCING THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO NARROW
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW FROM 58W-68W. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS
FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND JUST E OF BERMUDA. THIS NARROWING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAT 24 HOURS. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION HAS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC N OF 12N
FROM 30W-58W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER LOW NEAR 28N46W SSW TO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N55W. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR SURFACE FEATURES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE ATLC S OF 25N E OF 28W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 10N27W NE TO
25N14W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE 11N36W TO 19N26W. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS
OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
25N E OF 30W COVERING THE CANARY ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N15W EXTENDING SW JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 27N27W. ALL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE WELL N OF THE
REGION.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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