[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 27 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE HOWEVER FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N41W ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE 1002 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
26N44W...DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WITHIN
240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS FOR WIND FROM
30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS FROM 11 TO 16 FT.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO 26N41W CURVING TO 22N43W TO 22N50W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 8N20W 8N40W 7N60W 10N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTS RICA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N86W 26N90W 22N98W.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N84W TO 23N92W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W.  20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 90W N OF 22N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS NOTED OVER THE GULF EXCEPT THE NE...NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONVECTION.  A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM OF MOVING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N81W 8N82W
MOVING W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTS RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 61W-66W MOVING W WITH THE EASTERLIES.  ANOTHER BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
66W-72W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N80W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 8N-22N BETWEEN 60W-100W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE SE CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE...TROUGH...RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL PATTERED IS NOTED OVER
THE ATLANTIC.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 15N80W TO BEYOND 32N70W IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N41W...AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH AMERICA
ALONG 20N45W 7N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 32W-42W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FOUND OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
10N20W TO 30N18W.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF
THIS RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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