[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 27 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. SEE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ATLANTIC BELOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 7N26W 9N47W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 24W-36W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N8N BETWEEN 5W-36W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND THE CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA/
ARKANSAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS S TO THE TIP OF
TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO
E TEXAS. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N94W TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. THE BROAD...FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED N OF THE REGION OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND THE W ATLC.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE
NW GULF IN THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND OVERRUNNING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THUS THESE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN THE
GULF LATER THIS MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA 23N79W TO 33N75W. BROAD...FLAT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N FROM 60W-88W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 23N W OF 60W EXCEPT WHERE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N72W TO OVER W
PANAMA NEAR THE COAST RICA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11.5N FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 14.5N FROM
77W-81W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE E COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS A SMALL PORTION REMAINING IN THE REGION N OF 28N FROM
55W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OVER W CUBA TO NEAR
23N86W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR TONIGHT IS THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN DEEP LAYERED VERTICAL-STACKED
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N44W S ALONG 17N45W THEN SW TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N63W. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM A 1002 MB LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N42W THEN
S AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 24N38W TO 19N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
18N53W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N38W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC W OF A
LINE FROM 23N39W S TO 16N39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY TO
THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 23N-34N BETWEEN 34W-45W. BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 11N25W N ALONG 21N21W TO BEYOND 32N15W. AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED LOW AND THIS RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
18N-29N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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