[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 27 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. SEE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ATLANTIC BELOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 7N22W 7N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
BROAD...FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE W ATLC TO
INLAND OVER THE E HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE GULF N OF
26N W OF 55W. THIS IS PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC
JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR TO 22N80W BECOME IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW N
OF 30N FROM 54W-58W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
ARE OVER THE W ATLC FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 62W-70W. THE NEXT DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATES MID SECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NW GULF COAST N OF 28N W OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N80W WITH THE BROAD...FLAT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE AREA S OF 25N FROM 60W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE SW S OF 15N FROM 76W-83W WHERE A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S HAITI NEAR 18N73W TO OVER E
PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF 10N FROM 81W-83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM
75W-83W.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN DEEP
LAYERED VERTICAL-STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N43W THEN S ALONG
17N47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N62W. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM A 1002 MB LOW ALONG 28N40W
THEN S ALONG 23N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES W TO 19N53W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC W OF A LINE
FROM 20N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N50W AROUND THE BASE NEAR 21N44W TO 24N39W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 33W-45W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N27W N
ALONG 20N23W TO 33N20W. AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DEEP
LAYERED LOW AND THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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