[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 26 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N40W 7N60W 8N80W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 8W-12W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH RELATIVE FAIR
WEATHER.  10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND FROM N TEXAS TO N
MEXICO ALONG 36N100W TO 29N102W 24N99W.  A TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A JETSTREAM OF
100-120 KT WINDS WITH CONSIDERABLE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS N OF
25N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO MOVE A BIT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEST FEW HOURS.  BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO N
COLOMBIA ALONG 19N73W 11N76W.  BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 65W EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N70W TO 26N72W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH 32N65W TO
26N70W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  OVERCAST LOW TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 58W-61W.  A 1001 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW ALONG 27N40W 20N45W 20N52W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN
40W-45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N60W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 30W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 10N25W TO BEYOND 32N17W.

$$
FORMOSA



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