[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 26 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N27W 7N42W 6N54W 7N61W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE 1N-10N BETWEEN 5W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC COVERING THE
E UNITED STATES INTO THE GULF N OF 27N W OF 65W. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING SSW
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO 23N81W BECOME STATIONARY INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER BELIZE TO
NEAR 16N91W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N74W
TO BEYOND 32N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
BEYOND 34N73W ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO OVER N TEXAS
BEYOND 33N94W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE GULF WITH BROKEN/
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE E GULF AND W
ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN E OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 20N84W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS E
CUBA NEAR 22N77W INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 25N68W TO BEYOND 32N60W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 55W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 60W AND MOST OF
CARIBBEAN N OF 10N EXCEPT S OF 16N FROM 68W-73W WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N69W TO OVER NE COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
70W-73W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH
32N55W SW TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N64W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR...
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N45W S TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N43W THEN SW
ALONG 22N52W TO 15N66W IN THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N40W TO
22N47W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N52W AND A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE TO 32N36W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N36W SW ALONG 22N38W TO 17N43W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE ATLC WITHIN 400/450 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N47W SW TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N65W WITH VERY DRY
AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
25N35W N TO BEYOND 32N37W WITH AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N34W 31N40W TO 27N44W...WHICH IS JUST NE OF
THE UPPER LOW. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE SE ATLC FROM S OF 24N E OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A LARGE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THIS
RIDGE IS LOCATED S OF 23N FROM 33W-47W GENERATING OVERALL
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NW FLOW IS E OF
20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
E TROPICAL ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED E OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 24N E OF 18W. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N16W ALONG 20N19W TO INLAND OVER
SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 12N16W.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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