[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 26 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 7N21W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N E
OF 40W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC
COVERING THE E UNITED STATES INTO THE GULF N OF 26N W OF 67W. AT
THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING
SSW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND W CUBA ALONG 22N84W TO INLAND OVER
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER BELIZE TO NEAR 16N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG THE E SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD
FRONT IS GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE WITHIN 60/75
NM OF LINE FROM 27N74W TO BEYOND 32N68W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM 33N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO OVER TEXAS
BEYOND 30N96W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE GULF WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE E
GULF AND W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS E
CUBA NEAR 21N76W INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N64W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 62W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N FROM 62W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MOST OF CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 15N FROM 67W-70W WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE FORMING. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W SW TO THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR
HISPANIOLA. DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
AREA OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC AND THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W S TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N45W
TO A BASE NEAR 12N62W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N35W ALONG 27N41W TO 20N51W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N36W SW ALONG 23N38W TO
20N43W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE ATLC WITHIN
350/400 NM OF LINE FROM 28N49W SW TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N62W THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD RIDGE COVERS
MOST OF THE E ATLC FROM 20W-40W. THIS RIDGE HAS STRENGTHEN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO NEAR
36N ALTHOUGH IT COVERS A BROADER AREA S OF 20N E OF 50W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. A LARGE AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THIS RIDGE IS LOCATED S OF 25N
FROM 30W-50W AND N OF 25N FROM 30W-45W. THIS IS GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. NW FLOW IS NOW INLAND
OVER AFRICA THUS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE E TROPICAL
ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF
26N E OF 20W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S FROM A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR
29N17W INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA TO 23N15W. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 30N14W
TO 17N16W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NE
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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