[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 25 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N20W 7N60W 8N80W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 8W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 37W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 24N90W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO BELIZE.  COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS
COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE
SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO FLORIDA ALONG 23N107W 24N90W 27N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N67W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SEA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTAL REGIONS FROM VENEZUELA TO PANAMA TO NICARAGUA WHERE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED.  AT THE SURFACE...THE
ITCZ HAS DIPPED SOUTH TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA THUS CONVECTION IS
RATHER SPARSE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL
REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 23N50W 22N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 35W-44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 31N12W TO
26N16W 18N17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W.
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH
80-100 KT WINDS IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LINE 15N50W 20N30W
20N20W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 480 NM OF THE
CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA


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