[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 25 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 6N30W 7N50W 7N61W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N77W TO 9N83W
NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 7N
EAST OF 40W...FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. JET STREAM OF 80 TO
110 KT IN THIS BAND OF WINDS FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W AS GIVEN BY THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
25/1500 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N90W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N80W TO
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
WITHIN 15 TO 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22.5N85W 25N81W 26.5N78W.
COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AT THIS TIME...TOWARD THE GULF WATERS
WHICH SEE NOTHING BUT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH OF 24N98W 24N90W 26N83W
BEYOND 32N76W. SOME OF THE MEXICO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE
GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W. THE SHOWERS WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO ARE IN AREAS OF DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS
IS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS 14N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 14N84W 9N77W STRETCHING FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THESE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED MOST PROBABLY TO SURFACE ONSHORE
WIND FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT NEAR THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...CROSSING 70W AND BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARD THE 32N47W 16N60W TROUGH.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...TO 22N47W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N60W.
COLD FRONT FROM SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N39W TO 24N50W AND 22N60W. STATIONARY FRONT 22N60W 23N68W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE 24N47W BEYOND 32N37W. SEPARATE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 27N21W IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS.  BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
32N45W 22N47W DEEP LAYER TROUGH...OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO AFRICA.

$$
MT


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