[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 25 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 6N26W 9N48W 7N57W 9N62W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC THUS GENERATING PLENTY
OF DEEP CONVECTION. BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 10N AND S
OF LINE FROM 20N40W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM
THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 5N TO 4N14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 4N20W TO 8N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE E UNITED STATES
EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 79W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE GULF OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE OVER APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W EXTENDING S TO 25N87W
THEN SW OVER NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 17N94W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT IS GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
W CUBA NEAR 23N84W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO BEYOND
32N78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE E
BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE S GULF COAST STATES FROM JUST OFF
THE E US COAST TO ALABAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM 83W TO OVER S
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST NE OF
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 16N82W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N72W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THE W ATLC FROM 67W-81W AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF
72W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE SW ATLC S
OF 26N FROM 56W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT THE FAR SE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH
32N59W SW TO THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 19N70W. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR...ONLY TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE CARIBBEAN...OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 10N-14N W OF 81W AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N E OF 72W
TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N49W SW TO A BASE NEAR 15N62W AND CYCLONIC
FLOW WITHIN 300 NM OF THE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N43W TO 24N50W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N60W AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW TO 30N36W. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WARM
FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N43W TO 32N37W. RIDGE COVERS
THE SE ATLC S OF 23N E OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 8N30W TO
23N28W. AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND THIS RIDGE IS LOCATED E OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE W
ITCZ. NW FLOW OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR S OF 16N E OF 25W THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE E ITCZ. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE
ATLC IS N OF 23N E OF 33W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S FROM A
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 29N25W TO 24N24W. AT THE SURFACE...TWO WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM
26N33W TO 19N37W AND ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 30N13W TO
16N17W. NEITHER IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



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