[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 24 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 7N30W 9N50W 8N80W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 50W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S MEXICO ALONG 31N87W 24N90W 20N97W MOVING ESE 20
KT.  A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT OVER GEORGIA AND FLORIDA
ALONG 26N88W 34N81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTEND 120 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE.  20-30 KT WINDS
ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.  HIGHER GUSTS AND NUMEROUS
LIGHTING STRIKES ARE NOTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... 80-100 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO...SINCE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W TO BEYOND 32N77W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SQUALL LINE.  FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A BASE OVER W
TEXAS.  THE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY E AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 70W-100W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N...AND W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N50W 24N60W 24N67W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS  NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 38W-46W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 21N36W
29N30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
26N-32N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 32N48W TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N66W.  A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA WITH AXIS FROM 8N28W TO BEYOND
32N15W.

$$
FORMOSA


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