[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 24 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 7N30W 10N50W 10N62W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 9N76W TO
9N84W NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W...FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING
SOME OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH ARE WEST OF 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 5N EAST OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER OF TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO HAS SHOT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF IS SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS
TIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
32N89W 24N97W 21N105W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W TO 24N102W. A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 27N92W IN THE GULF WATERS NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 26N89W 28N86W...AND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W. THIS AREA COVERS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
ABOUND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
80W. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER LAND IN
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA
SOUTH OF 15N60W 14N70W 12N80W 13N84W AT THE NICARAGUA COAST.
ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF 14N79W.
NUMEROUS STRONG ITCZ-RELATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL
WATERS/SHORES OF PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...SOUTH OF THE
15N60W 14N70W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR LINE...IN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY STILL FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THAT AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A MEANINGFUL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT. A BROAD AND GRADUAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 20N50W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
GOES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...COVERING THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. THIS WIND REGIME IS BEING MET
BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W TO 20N50W TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 29N30W
TO 25N35W 20N37W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N28W
25N30W TROUGH...OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO AFRICA.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net