[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 23 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 7N30W 8N50W 9N61W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N77W TO 6N83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 3N28W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N104W IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
ARE IN THIS AREA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS
TO MEXICO NEAR 30N104W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N104W INTO
WESTERN MEXICO TO THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 25N111W. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO NEAR 27N100W
TO 32N97W AND EASTWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND
GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF
20N100W 24N90W 25N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF
THIS SAME LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST
OF 80W. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS POSSIBLY
OVER LAND IN NICARAGUA AND/OR JUST OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS PRETTY MUCH
THE WHOLE AREA WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS...TO A GREATER DEGREE IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF 20N87W 19N83W 14N70W
15N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...FROM THE
COASTLINE TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W...AT THE END OF THE
ATLANTIC-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
12N49W 12N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A BROAD AND GRADUAL MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 20N50W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 13N78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD 20N50W WHERE THE FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC
AND CONTINUES AS SOUTHWESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 80W. A SURFACE
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR 33N59W IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR 32N48W...DRAGGING
WITH IT A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE 33N59W LOW
CENTER TO 30N58W 27N60W AND 27N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY CONTINUES FROM 27N63W TO 28N70W AND BEYOND
32N77W. 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N76W...FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR 29N69W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N25W TO 25N31W. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES 25N31W TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N37W.
SURFACE TROUGH FROM LOW CENTER NEAR 24N37W TO 18N40W 12N50W AND
12N61W HAS REMAINED INTACT IN THIS AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST
WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W...BECOMING
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W.

$$
MT



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