[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 23 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 7N23W 9N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 7N13W-9N16W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N FROM 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SW
UNITED STATES MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND IS
APPROACHING THE NW GULF. AS OF NOW...THE GULF IS DOMINATED BE A
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 79W THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
AS FAR N AS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE S GULF AND SW ATLC S
OF 26N FROM 66W TO 90W. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH N GEORGIA/ALABAMA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA TO
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. THIS IS
GENERATING OVERALL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SE FROM 28N-31N AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE
TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING N ACROSS THE
GULF AND W ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 84W AND N OF 15N FROM 60W-84W. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF NICARAGUA...
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIVERGENCE IN THE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE 13N63W-TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N70W.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THREE LARGE
FEATURES...RIDGE OVER THE WEST...TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 15N AT THE BASE FROM
25W-65W. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM A 1015
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N59W SW TO 27N62W THEN NW AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
SYSTEM IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CAROLINA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM 33N35W SW TO 26N50W. A STRONGER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH 32N25W SW TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N38W
WITH AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING SW ALONG 14N45W TO
BETWEEN TOBAGO AND BARBADOS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N31W-21N38W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
15N50W-13N60W. MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N28W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N18W.
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NE IN THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE AND THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE S ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS ARE OVER THE SE ATLC S OF 20N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. THIS IS SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



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