[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 23 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N22W 9N45W 6N66W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT
THE ITCZ WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
7N10W 6N27W TO 11N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SW
UNITED STATES MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NW GULF TOMORROW NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BE A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE W CARIBBEAN AS FAR N AS THE GREAT LAKES. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE SE UNITED
STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE S GULF AND SW
ATLC S OF 26N FROM 60W TO 93W. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS OVER HE THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH N GEORGIA/ALABAMA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/
LOUISIANA TO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO NEAR
27N100W. THIS IS GENERATING OVERALL CLOUDINESS WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 28N TO OVER NORTH
CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING N ACROSS THE
GULF AND W ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 78W AND N OF 15N FROM 60W-78W. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG BOTH COASTS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER FAR W
COLOMBIA...ALL OF PANAMA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N W OF
80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTH/CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS TOBAGO TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THREE LARGE
FEATURES...RIDGE OVER THE WEST...TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 14N FROM 35W-65W. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF 25N E OF 50W...COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING SW TO 26N53W THEN NW AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR
33N61W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N66W
THEN NW TO THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM
IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL IT REACHES THE CAROLINA
COAST. A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N26W SW TO A 1012 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N38W WITH AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUING SW ALONG 14N51W TO OVER TOBAGO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N29W TO 19N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N33W-21N38W...WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 20N33W-18N38W...AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 13N FROM 55W-60W. MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N27W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
BEYOND 32N20W. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NE IN THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE AND THIS UPPER RIDGE
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE S ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
AT ALL LEVELS ARE OVER THE SE ATLC S OF 20N E OF 27W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA. THIS IS SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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