[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 22 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N20W 8N40W 7N60W 7N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-10W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 11W-13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES JUST N OF THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND TSTMS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  STATIONARY FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM THE BIG BEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS EXTENDING 30 NM OFFSHORE.  10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS IS CREATING A NEARLY STATIONARY OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA.  HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THAT
STATIONARY FRONT INTO TOMORROW.  WARM TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTH BUT A COLD FRONT SHOULD CHANGE THINGS BY
MID-WEEK...ENTERING THE NW GULF BY SUNRISE WED WITH A
SQUALL-LINE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
RIDGING N INTO FLORIDA.  A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  IN THE E CARIBBEAN... UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO HISPANIOLA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE LEEWARDS INTO PUERTO RICO THAN YESTERDAY.
AS THE UPPER FEATURE DIGS SOUTHWARD... ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
HAS POSITIONED ITSELF FROM NEAR GRENADA TO 14N70W.  HEAVY RAINS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS INTO
THE ABC ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY AND HIGH VALUES OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD TROUGHING IS OVER THE W ATLC WHILE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLC.  SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE W ATLC TROUGH IS ROTATING ALONG
40W N OF 20N...HELPING TO SPAWN A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 21N42W.  WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E TO 24N35W ALONG COMBINED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS
HAS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 27W-39W.  MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIES W
OF 50W N OF 20N WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM 31N36W 26N50W STATIONARY NW TO 32N60W.  IMPULSE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW CLOSE TO BERMUDA.. DRIVING THE FRONT
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD.  TROF/SHEAR-LINE EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB LOW
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS... WITH A FEW TSTMS W OF 53W.  BROAD
UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 30W N OF 20N WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SENEGAL TO 12N50W.  UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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