[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 22 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N23W 9N45W 8N59W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 19W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 5.5N-10N FROM 31W-41W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES JUST N OF THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND TSTMS OVER TEXAS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA.
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE BIG BEND INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED TSTMS EVEN FORMING OFFSHORE WITHIN 60 NM
OF 28N94W.  SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS CREATING A NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.  HEAVY
RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THAT STATIONARY FRONT INTO TOMORROW.
WARM TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH BUT A COLD FRONT SHOULD
CHANGE THINGS BY MID-WEEK...ENTERING THE NW GULF BY SUNRISE WED
WITH A SQUALL-LINE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
RIDGING N INTO FLORIDA.  A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  IN THE E CARIBBEAN... UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO HISPANIOLA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE LEEWARDS INTO PUERTO RICO THAN YESTERDAY.
AS THE UPPER FEATURE DIGS SOUTHWARD... ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
HAS POSITIONED ITSELF FROM NEAR BARBADOS/ST LUCIA TO 14N70W.
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FIRING FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 58W-68W.  ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WINDWARDS ISLANDS INTO THE ABC ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY AND HIGH VALUES OF DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD TROUGHING IS OVER THE W ATLC WHILE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLC.  SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE W ATLC TROUGH IS ROTATING ALONG
40W N OF 20N...HELPING TO SPAWN A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N42W.  WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E TO 35W ALONG 21N COMBINED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS
HAS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 32W-39W.  MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIES W
OF 50W N OF 20N WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM 31N39W 27N52W STATIONARY NW TO 31N59W.  IMPULSE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW CLOSE TO BERMUDA.. DRIVING THE FRONT
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD.  TROF/SHEAR-LINE EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB LOW
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS... WITH A FEW TSTMS W OF 53W.  BROAD
UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 30W N OF 20N WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SENEGAL TO 12N50W.  UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-40W.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net