[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 22 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N20W 11N40W 6N57W. SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 27W TO 33W
AND FROM 55W TO 57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 65W-95W. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS N
MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN INTO THE
SE U.S. BY SW 90-100 KT JETSTREAM. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM S GEORGIA W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS TO 1010
MB LOW CENTERED IN NW MEXICO NEAR 27N102W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS. OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE N COAST OF NICARAGUA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REGION N OF 15N FROM
35W-60W WITH THE MEAN AXIS FROM 32N45W TO 15N55W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR IN THE ATLC CONTINUES FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
ATLC NEAR 32N39W WSW TO 28N53W THEN STATIONARY TO 32N61W.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 23W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE AREA FROM 35W E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVER THE E ATLC S OF 20N E
OF 35W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MOST OF THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 21N43W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE LOW SW TO ST LUCIA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LOW FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 35W-40W....DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
THIS CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE TROUGH FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

$$
DGS


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