[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 21 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N27W 6N40W 8N48W 6N55W.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER SW AFRICA MOVING WESTWARD
BETWEEN 1W AND 8W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE E UNITED STATES TO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF AND NW FLOW OVER THE W
ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
AREA FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 65W-95W. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS N MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
INTO THE NW ATLC. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA W
ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS TO A NEW 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED IN NW MEXICO NEAR 26N100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA. OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 9N82W N ALONG 13N83W THEN NE TO 16N78W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REGION N OF 15N FROM
35W-65W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 53W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY
UPPER AIR FROM THE W ATLC CONTINUES E FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN
45W-65W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR
32N45W EXTENDING WSW ALONG 28N56W THEN NW TO 29N63W WHERE IT
CONTINUES N AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N69W. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N.
ON THE FAR E SIDE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 25N31W
N TO BEYOND 32N28W.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE AZORES NEAR 16N26W WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N26W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 15W-35W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT
ALL LEVELS COVER THE E ATLC S OF 20N W OF 35W THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS AN AREA OF A
CULL ZONE. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PREVIOUSLY EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC HAS BROKEN OFF AND IS NOW A
SEPARATE FEATURE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
22N36W W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 15N52W THEN
W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW/FRONT WITHIN 60/75 M OF LINE
20N45W-22N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 41W TO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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