[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 20 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N05W 6N40W 4N50W 6N60W 7N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W
AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING OUT OF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE
S UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE IS CONFINED N OF THE AREA LEAVING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE GLFMEX...
ESPECIALLY S OF 28N.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEEK TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WEST OVER THE N GLFMEX ALONG 29N92W TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI.  WHILE LACKING
SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS AND SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN 28N-31N FROM 91W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A PERSISTENT
TROUGH PATTERN CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ENTERS THE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDS WSW TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS.  A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND
EXTENDS NEWD FROM JAMAICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/FLAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W
HALF OF THE ATLC...CONFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY/STABLE AIR IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH CONTINUES
TO PUSH OUT FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE
JET IS CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN AND ONLY MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANIES THE JET OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.  OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC....A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 14N40W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 311N24W TO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS PATTERN IS CREATING TRANQUIL WEATHER
OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
JP/RB


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net