[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 20 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N07W 6N30W 4N50W 7N60W 5N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
9W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING OUT OF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE
S UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE IS CONFINED N OF THE AREA LEAVING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE GLFMEX...
ESPECIALLY S OF 27N.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEEK TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BOARDER WEST OVER THE N GLFMEX ALONG
28N90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND
BROWNSVILLE.  WHILE LACKING SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER
DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SCATTERED MODERATED/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 27N-31N
FROM 94W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A PERSISTENT
TROUGH PATTERN CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ENTERS THE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDS WSW TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS.  A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND
EXTENDS NEWD FROM JAMAICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC.  GOOD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/FLAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W
HALF OF THE ATLC AND CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING FROM THE E UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT OF
THIS PATTERN...CONFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
DRY/STABLE AIR IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EMERGING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE JET IS CONFINED TO THE
CARIBBEAN AND ONLY MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANIES
THE JET OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.  OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC....A WELL
DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 15N44W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 26N25W
TO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS PATTERN IS
CREATING TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A
NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
JP/RB





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