[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 19 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N20W 3N45W 7N60W 7N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
57W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE S UNITED STATES.  AS A
RESULT...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS
CONFINED N OF THE AREA LEAVING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE GLFMEX...ESPECIALLY S OF 25N.  AT THE
SURFACE...1015 MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE N
GLFMEX ALONG 27.5N90W INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI.
WHILE LACKING SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER DYNAMICS...SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS PRODUCING A 60 NM WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE THE PERSISTENT
TROUGH PATTERN CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS.  A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG THE E FLANK OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD FROM JAMAICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC.  GOOD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL
JET PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/FLAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W
HALF OF THE ATLC.  THE TROUGH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DROPPING SEWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES.  THE
MOST RECENT OF THESE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY JUST E
OF BERMUDA NEARING 60W.  AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN...CONFLUENT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DRY/STABLE AIR IS BEING
MAINTAINED OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG A
100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE JET IS CONFINED TO THE
CARIBBEAN AND ONLY MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANIES
THE JET OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.  OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC....A WELL
DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 15N42W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 25N25W
TO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS PATTERN IS
CREATING TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A
NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
JR




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