[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 19 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 8N20W 2N35W 3N60W 6N70W 6N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 16W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 38W-42W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 49W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB LOW IS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
OVER THE NW GULF TO 27N94W WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
MISSISSIPPI ALONG 20N95W 30N89W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING OVER TEXAS AND THE N GULF MOVING NE AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N50W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO 11N80W 11N90W.  UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE OPEN
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ORIGINATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...PASSING
OVER GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TOWARD CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE AREA NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN
COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO.  HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  ON THE SURFACE...BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE SEA.   A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N65W 11N75W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENTRAINING WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N78W.   HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 26N43W 25N50W.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
HOWEVER COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO
60W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N34W 27N35W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO 20N40W 17N50W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED HERE EITHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST
OF W AFRICA BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 28N22W 17N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.  THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 11N50W ALSO HAS ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO BEYOND 32N30W.  A JETSTREAM OF 120 KT WINDS
AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LINE 14N70W
24N50W 27N40W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 27N16W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO 20N10W.

$$
FORMOSA


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