[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 17 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N10W 9N20W 6N30W 6N40W 4N50W 4N60W...ACROSS VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TO THE COLOMBIA PACIFIC COAST NEAR 6N77W...TO 9N85W JUST
WEST OF COSTA RICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO
7N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND
27W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
77W AND 79W FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO PANAMA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...INLAND AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WEST
TEXAS NEAR 31N104W...WITH A TROUGH WHICH IS SWEEPING INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING AN 1017 MB TEXAS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N99W...AND ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING WARM FRONT/
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY AND SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N98W IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND 91W...ARE MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...IN MEXICO AND MOVING EAST
ALSO...NOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVERYWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN
PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE OPEN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS
FLOW REGIME IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL STREAKS OF MOISTURE...WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF 20N58W 13N70W 10N80W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE...AND IN GENERAL...
TO THE LEFT-OVER BROAD LOW PRESSURE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
END OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH NEAR 13N60W. COLD FRONT FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 18N60W TO 18N64W. STATIONARY FRONT 18N64W 17N70W 17N80W
TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WEST OF 50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N46W TO THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N47W. COLD FRONT 28N47W 20N53W 18N60W 18N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N60W 17N50W 19N45W 23N42W...
AND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE 10N50W 12N31W 20N26W 28N25W BEYOND 34N26W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 50W
CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 13N48W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 14N18W...AND MOVES ACROSS
MAURITANIA...AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IN AFRICA...AND IN
PART DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CYCLONIC CENTER IN
ALGERIA.

$$
MT


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