[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 16 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 7N20W 5N30W 7N40W 7N50W 9N61W 8N68W 6N75W 7N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 11W...FROM 4N TO
11N BETWEEN 15W AND 30W...FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W
AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W AROUND
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 19N111W AND THE ISLAS
REVILLAGIGEDO OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THIS
TROUGH IN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THIS
MEXICO-TO-EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
90W AND 96W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A BROAD
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N62W TO THE AREA OF 20N70W...WHICH
IS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
TO JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF
80W SOUTH OF 24N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WEST OF 32N50W 21N60W.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 44W/45W...NORTH OF 13N...IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE 32N62W 20N70W DEEP LAYER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH FROM
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N51W GOES TO 17N56W...AND
15N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ISOLATED CELL OF
SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N44W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...A RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE
DEEP LAYER 32N62W 20N70W SURFACE TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...FROM 18N19W BEYOND 31N14W...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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