[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 15 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 6N50W 9N65W 6N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 18W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 35W-48W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 62W-76W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
HAS EXPANDED SWD TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND PRODUCING
EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS.  LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W-95W MOVING NE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  AN EQUALLY STRONG BUT
STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING PUMPED NWD OVER
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WEST ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS SWEPT
OFF THE EAST U.S. COAST INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA.  A COLD IS FRONT FROM 32N57W 23N70W TO
22N80W OVER CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  COLD AND STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
CREATED AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF 75W WITH
25-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N78W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM S
AMERICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 70W
INCLUDING COASTAL COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...ABC ISLANDS...THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.   THE MOISTURE CONTINUES NEWD INTO
THE ATLC.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC IS A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N52W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO GUADELOUPE.  THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN
BROAD...MOIST...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW AT THE APEX OF A TROPICAL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N50W AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING BEYOND 32N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED S AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
45W-51W.  A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO APPROACHING THE LOW FROM THE E
ALONG 14N42W 21N40W WITH INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 600 NM TO THE N.

EAST ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC HAS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEWD TO THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.  GENERALLY
BROAD...SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN FROM THE N EXTENDING FROM
N AFRICA WWD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS...EXCEPT FOR A SFC TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG 19N31W 28N29W.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MOVING NWWD
WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 22N BETWEEN
26W-32W.

$$
FORMOSA








This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net