[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 15 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 7N20W 4N29W 5N40W 8N65W 6N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 10W-19W WITH OTHER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING FARTHER
E WITHIN 100 NM INLAND OF THE GHANA...IVORY COAST...AND LIBERIA
COASTLINE. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
AND HAS EXPANDED SWD TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND PRODUCING
EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LIES ON THE S SIDE OF THE HIGH
EXTENDING FROM HAVANA CUBA WWD TO 23N92W WITH PATCHY SHOWERS
ROLLING WWD FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA...AN EQUALLY
STRONG BUT STATIONARY CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING PUMPED NWD OVER MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PERSISTENT SFC TROUGHING REMAINS JUST
OFF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST ALONG 27N97W 22N97W WITH A 1020
MB SFC LOW ABOUT 40 NM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS...WITH
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FARTHER E FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 88W-92W.

WEST ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS SWEPT OFF THE EAST U.S. COAST INTO
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CNTRL
BAHAMAS...AND A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N58W 24N70W 23N79W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MUCH
COLDER AND STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CREATED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE N.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BLED SWD OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD...AND THIS HAS
CREATED A LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A LINE FROM
PANAMA TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ZONE ALSO LIES ON
THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SAGGING SWD OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 67W-74W INCLUDING OVER
COASTAL COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA..AND ARUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS ALSO UP TO 120 NM N OF THE PANAMA COAST. A WEAK 1011
MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM WSW OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N63W WITH
A TROF EXTENDING SW TO THE VENEZUELAN COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTEND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITHIN THE NLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW...AS WELL AS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS STREAMING NEWD INTO THE ATLC.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC IS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED
NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N52W WITH A TROF
EXTENDING SWD TO GUADELOUPE AND CONNECTING TO THE E CARIBBEAN
LOW. THE FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD MOIST SWLY FLOW AT THE
APEX OF A TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 52W...AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED S AND E OF THE LOW FROM
14N-23N BETWEEN 47W-57W. A SFC TROF IS ALSO APPROACHING THE LOW
FROM THE E ALONG 11N42W 20N39W WITH ONLY INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 600 NM TO THE N.

EAST ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC HAS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEWD TO THE IBERIAN PENINSULA...AND A SHARP RIDGE ALONG
30W. GENERALLY BROAD HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN FROM THE N EXTENDING
FROM N AFRICA WWD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS...EXCEPT FOR A SFC TROF
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG 20N31W 27N29W. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MOVING NWWD
WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 22N BETWEEN
26W-32W.

$$
BERG







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