[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 15 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 6N20W 6N40W 7N50W 8N60W 9N67W 7N80W 7N84W.
9N67W 6N77W 6N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W
OVER AFRICA AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 17W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N112W...TO 18N117W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MEXICO WEST OF 96W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THIS TROUGH IN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THIS MEXICO-TO-
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
AND WEST OF 22N98W 25N86W 29N86W. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 95W/97W FROM 21N TO 29N. COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 23N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N84W TO 23N90W AND 24N94W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THIS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF 30N40W 28N50W
24N60W 20N70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 20N70W
12N84W. HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...PART OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA...COVERS THE AREA EAST OF THE DRY AIR. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N50W TO ATLANTIC OCEAN 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N54W...TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N61W...SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...AND FROM
15N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 12N74W 14N68W 18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF 30N40W 28N50W
24N60W 20N70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 20N70W
12N84W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...PART OF THE FLOW AROUND A RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER
EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER
RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N44W BEYOND 32N34W. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
32N45W TO 27N50W TO ATLANTIC OCEAN 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 22N54W...TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N61W...SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N
TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...AND FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W
AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N74W 14N68W
18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE SW
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.


THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PART OF
THE FLOW AROUND A RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MOST OF THIS
FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CROSSES 50W. SOME OF
THIS WIND EVENTUALLY REACHES THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHOSE BASE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N25W.
THIS TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 41W/42W FROM 13N TO 22N...MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.

$$
MT






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