[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150626
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 15 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 7N20W 7N30W 6N40W 6N50W 9N60W 9N64W 9N67W 6N77W
6N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 4W AND 15W...OVER AFRICA
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W...
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N111W...TO 17N118W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MEXICO WEST OF 96W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THIS TROUGH IN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 109W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THIS MEXICO-TO-
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 29N86W 25N87W 21N97W.
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 95W/97W FROM 19N TO 27N. COLD FRONT
GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N83W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
24N83W TO 24N90W AND 25N94W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THIS SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N70W ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF 30N40W 28N50W 24N60W
20N70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 20N70W 12N84W.
HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA...COVERS THE AREA EAST OF THE DRY AIR. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 22N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N60W TO 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N63W...
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 14N63W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR
8N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N70W
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF 30N40W 28N50W 24N60W
20N70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 20N70W 12N84W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PART OF
THE FLOW AROUND A RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER
RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N44W BEYOND 32N34W. DISSIPATING SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N50W TO 1007 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N54W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N54W TO
17N60W TO 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N63W...TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 14N63W TO NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND
54W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.



THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PART OF
THE FLOW AROUND A RIDGE FROM 8N55W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MOST OF THIS
FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CROSSES 50W. SOME OF
THIS WIND EVENTUALLY REACHES THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHOSE BASE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N25W.
THIS TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 41W/42W FROM 13N TO 22N...MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.

$$
MT





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