[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 14 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 5N20W 6N30W 4N41W 8N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-33W
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE OVER CNTRL VENEZUELA EXTENDING W INTO E COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE N GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SWWD TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA TO
25N85W...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N92W TO A 1020 MB LOW
JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS...IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE LOCATED N OF THE FRONT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GULF. A LARGE MID/UPPER TROF IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA NEAR NW MEXICO AND BROAD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AXIS IS FOCUSING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 94W-98W. WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM TEXAS INDICATES A BATCH OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTMS MOVING INLAND BETWEEN CORPUS
CHRISTI AND MATAGORDA BAY. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF THE E/CNTRL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP JUICY AIR NWD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS SAGGED INTO THE NW
PART OF THE AREA REACHING FROM CNTRL CUBA ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE HAS DRAGGED DRIER
AIR SWD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT HAS ALSO INDUCED BROAD S/SW
FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE STREAMING
TOWARDS THE CNTRL ATLC. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W WITH A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
VENEZUELAN COAST NEWD PAST GUADELOUPE INTO THE ATLC. STRONG NLY
WINDS ARE FUNNELING SWD TO THE W OF THE LOW...AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST N OF THE ABC
ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
78W-84W.

WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL BAHAMAS...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR MIAMI
FLORIDA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE
FRONT WHICH ARE STREAMING SWWD ACROSS FLORIDA. FARTHER E...THE
TROF OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE TO A BROAD 1008 MB LOW NEAR
21N56W AND THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEWD BEYOND 32N45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S AND E OF THE LOW FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 50W-59W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 47W-54W BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

EAST ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE E/CNTRL
ATLC WATERS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 17N45W TO 32N34W...AND
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING AROUND THE TOP
HEADING E OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC HAS BUILT SWD PAST THE AZORES TO ABOUT 20N AND E
OF 40W. TWO SFC TROFS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ELY FLOW...THE
FIRST ALONG 18N24W 27N24W AND THE SECOND ALONG 15N39W 23N36W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPROUTING WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF
EITHER TROF ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS SIGNIFICANT. A
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 22N21W AND AN EXTENSION OF THE TROF STRETCHES ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO ABOUT 10N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE JUST E OF THE BASE OF THE
TROF IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...PRIMARILY E OF
30W. A SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING S OFF THE PORTUGUESE COAST AND WILL
ACT TO REINFORCE THE TROF FROM NW AFRICA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG




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