[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 14 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 6N23W 7N35W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND NW CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 87W. RIDGE IS DRIFTING E AND AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW MOVING NE OUT OF TEXAS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC JUST OFF THE N CAROLINA
COAST ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA THEN W OVER NW
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N86W. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PART OF A LARGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W
WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK INSIGNIFICANT RIDGE AXIS FROM 28N66W TO
BEYOND 32N59W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH 32N70W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ENTERING THE GULF S OF FORT MYERS TO 25N84W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT W ALONG 23N91W TO 25N94W THEN
INLAND OVER S TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N93W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN
GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI MOVING NE. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF N OF FRONT LEAVING
THE S GULF DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N-25N W OF 70W
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...S FLORIDA...AND ALL OF CUBA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 30N48W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N65W. THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC INTO FAR E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING SSW TO
A 1007 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE THEN S TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA TO NEAR 8N66W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE 19N51W-16N57W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 20N-30N W OF 33W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER
THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W AND CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 76W-84W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E ATLANTIC... MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 10N52W NE TO BEYOND 32N36W. THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS E OF
35W LEAVING THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR.

E ATLANTIC...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDES NEAR
23N25W. MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CUTOFF LOW S INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 10N24W. THE LOW/TROUGH IS STUCK TO
THE S OF A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS SPAIN...THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA...TO OVER THE N AFRICA N OF 26N E OF 30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
23W-25W.

$$
WALLACE



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