[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 14 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 7N26W 6N50W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 88W. RIDGE IS DRIFTING E AND AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME NW TEXAS WHICH IS MOVING NE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE E UNITED STATES INTO
THE GULF NOW EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH THE N CAROLINA COAST ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PART OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 48W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERING THE
GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 24N90W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA NEAR 27N78W. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FLOW OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING N WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N
FROM 95W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF N OF FRONT LEAVING THE S GULF DRY
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 17N-24N W OF 70W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...S FLORIDA...AND ALL OF CUBA.

CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N53W S TO 20N67W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING SSW TO
A 1008 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W SW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE TO A 1007 MB LOW IN THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N65W THEN S TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO 6N65W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 52W-57W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N-30N W OF 36W.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLANTIC...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 11N56W NE TO BEYOND 32N37W. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W LEAVING THE W
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.

E ATLANTIC...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDES NEAR
23N23W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW S INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N25W. THE LOW/TROUGH IS STUCK TO THE S OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS SPAIN...E MEDITERRANEAN
SEA...S TO OVER THE N AFRICA N OF 28N E OF 30W. SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
26N25W TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
21W-24W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net