[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 132349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 13 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N10W 7N40W 6N50W 8N60W 8N80W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 16W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 89W. THIS RIDGE IS MOVING E AND AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME W TEXAS WHICH IS MOVING NWD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N79W TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION N OF TAMPA WESTWARD TO 24N90W TO N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 23N98.  THE FRONT IS STATIONARY W OF 85W AS THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PREVENTING THE FRONT FROM MOVING FURTHER S.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST LOW STRATUS BLANKETING THE GULF COAST
ALL THE WAY FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AROUND THE COAST
THROUGH S TEXAS. LOCAL RADARS ARE INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER S TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE W GULF IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HELPING TO MOVE THE FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THAT AREA AND
ALSO ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W AND WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W...
MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST AND
EXTENDS FROM 32N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS W
OF TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...W CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY
AIR IS SUPPORTED BY RAWINSONDE DATA OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 32N76W ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N73W TO 27N80W. A BROKEN LINE 45-60 NM
WIDE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
NW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPING ON THE W SIDE OF A
LARGE AND STRENGTHENING ATLC TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY STRONG SURFACE NE WINDS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE ATLC
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W AND ATLC BETWEEN 40W-70W...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS FROM
30N55W TO 24N60W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. SURFACE LOW CENTERS OF 1006 MB ARE
ANALYZED NEAR 18N60W AND 13N65W...WITH A TROUGH CONNECTING THE
TWO LOWS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW AT 18N60W TO BEYOND 32N43W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 51W-57W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS FAR N AS 30N. OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN SEA...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING
GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
67W-71W. FARTHER E OVER THE ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
ALONG 45W. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS. THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES OVER ACROSS THIS
AREA AHEAD OF DEVELOPING W ATLC TROUGH. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED FROM THE LOW NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS STRONG W-SW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 30-50 KT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM.

E ATLC E OF 40W...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 23N23W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE LOW WITHIN
4-5 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS STUCK TO THE S OF A
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE N OF 30N ALONG 25W...AND TO THE SW OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER MOROCCO. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NWD TO NEAR 26N25W IS A WEAK
REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 28N E
OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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