[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 13 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 7N25W 6N45W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 92W. THIS RIDGE IS MOVING E AND AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME W TEXAS WHICH IS MOVING NWD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION N OF TAMPA WESTWARD TO 25N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
FRONT IS STATIONARY W OF 85W AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
PREVENTING THE FRONT FROM MOVING FURTHER S. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
OVERCAST LOW STRATUS BLANKETING THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY FROM
NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AROUND THE COAST THROUGH S TEXAS. LOCAL
RADARS ARE INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER S TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE W GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HELPING TO
MOVE THE FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THAT AREA AND ALSO ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER TEXAS
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W AND WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W...
MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST AND
EXTENDS FROM 32N78W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS W OF
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...W CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY
AIR IS SUPPORTED BY RAWINSONDE DATA OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 32N787W ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N77W TO 27N80W. A BROKEN LINE 45-60 NM
WIDE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
NW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPING ON THE W SIDE OF A
LARGE AND STRENGTHENING ATLC TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY STRONG SURFACE NE WINDS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE ATLC
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W AND ATLC BETWEEN 40W-70W...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS FROM
30N58W TO 23N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT ATLC
WATERS. SURFACE LOW CENTERS OF 1008 MB ARE ANALYZED NEAR 18N59W
AND 14N65W...WITH A TROUGH CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW AT 18N59W TO BEYOND 32N44W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 15N58W-20N52W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT AS FAR N AS 30N. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DRY
AIR ALOFT...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 68W-78W. FARTHER
E OVER THE ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 45W. THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. THE
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES OVER ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING W ATLC TROUGH. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM THE LOW NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS STRONG W-SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OF 30-50 KT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.

E ATLC E OF 40W...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 23N24W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE LOW WITHIN
4-5 DEGREES OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS STUCK TO THE S OF A
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE N OF 30N ALONG 25W...AND TO THE SW OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER MOROCCO. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NWD TO NEAR 25N25W IS A WEAK
REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 28N E
OF 30W.

$$
MOLLEDA


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