[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 13 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 6N26W 6N39W 5N50W 8N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 8N
FROM 19W-24W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-13N E OF 34W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES
INTO W ATLC IS SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA SW ALONG 25N87W TO 24N93W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 23N96W THEN CONTINUES S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ AND NW ALONG THE E SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N79W SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 26N83W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 28N80W TO 30N79W THEN WIDENS TO WITHIN
60 NM TO BEYOND 32N76W. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
BECOMING EVEN MORE STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF. THE STRONG HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THE FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR S FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SE. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
PREVAILS THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THIS PATTERN HAS ENDED THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW JUST E OF GUADELOUPE
SW THROUGH THE ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W TO INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA
JUST W OF TRINIDAD. THIS IS CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. DRY/STABLE AIR IS
SPILLING S FROM THE W ATLC COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN
120 NM OF 15N W OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC REMAINS HIGH AND DRY AS A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM HISPANIOLA TO JUST E OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF UNITED STATES INTO
THE FAR W ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS W OF A CENTRAL
ATLC STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N45W 26N47W THEN SW
TO THE 1006 MB LOW E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N59W. MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND W TROPICAL ATLC WHERE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NE IS INTERACTING WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N60W TO NEAR 24N51W. FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N48W NE TO
31N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
S OF 17N BETWEEN 36W-51W EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A NEAR STATIONARY
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 24N25W S
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 6N26W. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

$$
WALLACE



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