[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 13 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N10W 6N21W 4N46W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
18W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 14.5W
FROM 4N-7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES
SWEEPS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVER THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL LIFT NE OF THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE
W GULF. A STRONG HIGH PUSHING E FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SHOULD PUSH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT...E OF 80W...THUS
CLEARING S FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS
SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAILS THUS LIMITING
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK HAS FINALLY LIFTED NE INTO THE ATLC. ASSOCIATED
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED MOSTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRYING NOW OCCURRING. WHILE THIS PATTERN HAS ENDED THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW JUST E OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA SW THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S TO OVER TRINIDAD. DRY/STABLE AIR IS SPILLING
S FROM THE W ATLC COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
W ATLC REMAINS HIGH AND DRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
BERMUDA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE E UNITED
STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS W OF A CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N45W 27N47W THEN SW TO THE 1006 MB
LOW E OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NEAR 18N60W. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND W TROPICAL ATLC WHERE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NE IS INTERACTING WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LARGE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF
LINE 23N52W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-57W. FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
9N48W NE TO BEYOND 31N39W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR S OF 17N BETWEEN 37W-53W EFFECTIVELY
SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A NEAR
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME CUTOFF WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR 25N26W. A TROUGH AXIS TRAILS S INTO THE
E TROPICAL ATLC TO 4N27W. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

$$
WALLACE


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