[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 12 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N60W...LEADING INTO AN
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N62W...TROUGH FROM THIS
LOW CENTER TO A SECOND 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
15N65W...TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 15N65W TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N69W. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
IS RELATED TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST TO THE EAST FROM 16.5N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N50W 20N54W 15N57W 9N61W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N7W 5N20W 5N30W 6N40W 7N50W 8N64W 10N70W 8N80W 8N83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 120W...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO
A LITTLE BIT OF RIDGE THERE...AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE GULF WATERS AND MUCH OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF 26N...SUPPRESSING AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND
FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 30N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 26N90W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR 23N95W...INTO MEXICO
NEAR 20N98W AND 23N100W. STATIONARY FRONT 23N100W 30N103W. RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. TROUGH JUST EAST OF FRONT THROUGH
30N86W 25N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 20N60W TO 13N72W. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THIS OVERALL AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA FOR THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS EVERYTHING EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA...FEEDING
INTO THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W TO
31N55W TO 24N65W AND 20N60W. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY
THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N47W
26N50W 20N57W TO THE 18N62W NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN
400 TO 600 NM NORTHWEST AND WEST OF 32N46W 25N60W 19N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST TO THE EAST FROM 16.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N50W 20N54W 15N57W 9N61W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
ONE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N72W. ANOTHER RIDGE
FROM 26N54W BEYOND 32N60W. ONE RIDGE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE SUBTROPICS ALONG 17N44W 26N28W
BEYOND 32N24W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
7N TO 35N BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. THERE IS MORE THAN ONE POSSIBLE
CYCLONIC SWIRL WITHIN THIS WHOLE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS BORDERED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...
AND AN AREA OF NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CYCLONIC FLOW
WHICH STRETCHES FROM CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N46W...WITH RIDGE GOING TO 32N41W.

$$
MT


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