[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 111604
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST THU NOV 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF GUADELOUPE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE
SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATER.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADERS HSFAT2 AND
HSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADERS FZNT02 KNHC AND FZNT01 KWBC.

A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED JUST WEST OF
ARUBA...IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 MPH.  WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ALONG THE COASTAL
REGIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

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