[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 09 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFUSE AS THE
WAVE MOVES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO SHEARING ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEE E CARIBBEAN BELOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N13W 7N21W 10N37W 8N50W 10N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 17W-22W AND
WITHIN 75 NM OF 6N FROM 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10N38W-9N41W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO ALONG 99W EXTENDS N OVER THE
MID WEST REINFORCING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W GULF
INTO THE W ATLC AND CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF...THUS DRAGGING DOWN REINFORCING SHOTS
OF CONTINENTAL AIR. THE LATEST SURGE AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE N GULF ALONG 27N/28N. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS
DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS. IN FACT...THE ONLY
CLOUDS OF NOTE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS INDICATING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 15N W OF 66W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OVER
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.

E CARIBBEAN AND REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC...
A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING N
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINED
WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WITHIN
350/400 NM E OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM A 1006 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N77W ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N69W TO W OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
LOW/TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W
TO 16N71W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N77W TO JUST INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 15N FROM 72W-78W AND S OF 12N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NE.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...STRONG
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N66W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N60W
NNE TO BEYOND 32N50W...AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC
E OF 45W. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OBSERVED OVER THE W ATLC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE FAR E ATLC OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA. MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS RIDES UP THE W
ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-55W. OVER THE E ATLC...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW LOCATED
ABOUT 750 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TRAILS A TROUGH S TO 10N.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM
12N29W 23N20W TO OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N30W
WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE TO THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 30N25W. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT NE TO 31N20W THE JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILING S ALONG 20N25W THEN SW TO
12N43W. A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW W ALONG 21N36W TO 20N46W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEMS OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC EXTEND FAR S
INTO THE TROPICS THUS LEAVING ONLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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