[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 09 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE SIGNATURE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
SHEARING ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
16N68W-ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 23N63W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N10W 8N27W 9N45W 8N53W 10N64W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN
18W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N E OF 20W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO ALONG 99W EXTENDS N OVER THE
MID WEST REINFORCING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W GULF
INTO THE W ATLC AND CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF...THUS DRAGGING DOWN REINFORCING SHOTS
OF CONTINENTAL AIR. THE LATEST SURGE AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY  ALONG THE N GULF ALONG 28N/29N. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS
DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS. IN FACT...THE ONLY
CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
INDICATING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S
TO 15N W OF 70W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OVER THE N BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N77W. DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

E CARIBBEAN AND REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC...
A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING N
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINED
WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WITHIN
250/350 NM E OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM A 1006 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N78W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG
20N70W-27N69W TO W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE
LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 16N
FROM 70W-77W INCLUDING N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA INCLUDING
LAKE MARACAIBO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AS IT
LIFTS QUICKLY NE. OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...STRONG DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG FROM
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W NNE TO BEYOND 32N51W...AND
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC E OF 45W. THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED OVER THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND OVER THE FAR E ATLC OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS RIDES UP THE W ATLC AND OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W. OVER THE E
ATLC...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW LOCATED ABOUT 700 NM W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS TRAILS A TROUGH S TO 10N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N29W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING E TO THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR 27N23W. A DISSIPATING WARM
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS S ALONG 17N30W THEN W TO
15N49W. A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW W ALONG 21N36W TO 21N47W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEMS OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC EXTEND FAR S
INTO THE TROPICS THUS LEAVING ONLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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