[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 08 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF
20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE SIGNATURE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS ALSO SHEARING
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 63W-68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 12N20W 10N30W 9N40W 7N50W 9N60W 12N70W
9N80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRY NLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GLFMEX AND
DRAG DOWN REINFORCING SHOTS OF CONTINENTAL AIR. THE LATEST SURGE
IS CURRENTLY EMERGING INTO THE N GLFMEX ALONG 30N. HOWEVER THIS
FRONT IS DRY AND UNABLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS.  IN
FACT...THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS INDICATING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS.  DRY/TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GLFMEX ON WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS
EXTENDS SWD ACROSS W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR W OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A
DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE PLUME OF
DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NWD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.  THIS COMBINED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEWD OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.  MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WITHIN 250 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM W HISPANIOLA SWD TO COSTA RICA.  AN ILL-DEFINED
1006 MB LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 12N77W BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...THE LOW IS ENHANCING
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
IT LIFTS QUICKLY NEWD.  OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 64W/65W IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES CHAIN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED/WET
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN AND DRY FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS
SLOWLY SEWD.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 60W...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
THE ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 52W...AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLC E OF 45W.  THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OBSERVED OVER THE W
ATLC EAST OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  COPIOUS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 61W-71W. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A SHARP WESTERN EDGE COURTESY
OF CONFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER E...AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE RIDES UP AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
BETWEEN 35W-55W. OVER THE E ATLC...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW
LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TRAILS A TROUGH SWD
TO 20N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND 26W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1006 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N28W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E TO THE TRIPLE POINT
NEAR 27N23W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD ALONG 20N27W
14N40W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC PENETRATES INTO THE
TROPICAL WATERS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N BETWEEN 25W-50W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ENHANCED ITCZ
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20W-45W. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS FILTER SWD OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
RESTRICTING ITCZ ACTIVITY WEST OF 45W.

$$
RHOME






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