[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 08 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM ANGUILLA AND ST. KITTS SWD ALONG 63W
S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW PRES IS LOCATED W OF THE WAVE
OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND THIS IS CAUSING THE WAVE SIGNATURE
TO DETERIORATE. THE BARBADOS VERTICAL SOUNDING INDICATED A WIND
SHIFT AROUND 00 UTC LAST EVENING...SO A POSITION ON THE W SIDE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS REASONABLE. UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS
PUSHING ALL THE TSTMS E OF THE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 9N21W...THEN ALONG 13N27W 8N40W 3N55W
8N80W 7N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 225 NM S OF THE
AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 2W-9W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR
ANOTHER DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BLOW FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
BEYOND 120 NM OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC AND BROAD NWLY FLOW IS SPILLING FROM A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MTNS SWD TO THE GULF. THIS FLOW IS POISED
TO PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT NOW OVER CNTRL GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA SWD OFF THE GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TUE AND
WED.

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDS SWD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM JAMAICA TO
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THIS LINE IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS BEING DRAWN NWD TO THE E OF THE TROF AND EXTENDS FROM PANAMA
TO HISPANIOLA THEN TO BERMUDA. AT THE SURFACE...A TROF IS
LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM N OF PANAMA AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 72W-84W. QSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED LOW
ALONG THIS TROF AND SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE NEWD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. A SECOND TROF EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THEN TO 30N70W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE UP TO 350 NM E OF
THIS AXIS PRIMARILY FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO 32N73W AND THIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 23N-30N. AND AS
IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES CHAIN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO TRINIDAD.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 60W...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED ALONG 52W AND
CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE E OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY OVER THE E ATLC WHERE A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS ALIGNED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
MADEIRA ISLAND SWWD TO 13N43W...WITH AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 525 NM
WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A 1006 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N28W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E TO 27N24W THEN AS A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 29N14W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SWWD ALONG 27N24W
18N30W 15N41W AND A REINFORCING TROF EXTENDS W OF THE LOW ALONG
26N28W 24N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 130
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR N OF 20N AS WELL AS
150 NM N OF THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT BETWEEN 17W-28W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E ATLC HAS CARVED ITSELF SWD
OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 25W-50W...REACHING DOWN TO
ABOUT 11N. THIS HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE CNTRL
ATLC BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES SEWD ALONG THE ITCZ...THEN NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO NW AFRICA. THE TROF IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE TO ITS
EAST AND IS CAUSING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ITCZ E OF 45W...AND
THE SUBTROPICAL COLD FRONT IS DRAWING THESE TSTMS NEWD OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW JUST W OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 15N27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 18W-28W AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE AFRICAN
COAST THROUGH TOMORROW.

$$
BERG





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