[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 08 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS OVER
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED FOR
SO LATE IN THE YEAR. WESTERLY SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-18N E OF 65W TO OVER THE ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 8N17W 12N28W 9N38W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
7N31W-9N41W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 7N26W-8N28W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
AND TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND W CARIBBEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N INTO THE MID
WEST WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W IN THE GULF. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E UNITED STATES...REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W. THIS SCENARIO HAS
ESTABLISHED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS FAR S AS NICARAGUA AND W OF
76W. THIS HAS LEFT THE MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING S TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 30N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W.

REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC...E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N70W N ALONG
20N66W TO NEAR 31N57W. THIS DIVERGENT FLOW WITH THE STRONG
TROUGH TO THE W HAS PRODUCED A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N69W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 18N75W TO THE S
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N73W-14N78W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 12N FROM INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO S
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
12N63W EXTENDING N TO 18N60W. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
10N54W TO 18N55W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 200/225 NM OF THE
AXIS. THE DIVERGENT FLOW FROM THIS RIDGE AND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 55W AND THE
ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC AND E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N50W. THIS IS STRENGTHENING
THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO
PUSHING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
11N FROM 34W-56W. THUS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 19N E OF 40W HAS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N29W. AT THE SURFACE...A
COMPLEX SYSTEM STEMS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N29W
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E TO A TRIPLE-POINT 1006 MB LOW
NEAR 25N24W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG TO 18N32W THEN
DISSIPATES TO 16N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 MB
LOW E TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
29N11W. A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE 1008 MB LOW W ALONG 25N39W THEN NW TO 28N45W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
WHICH IS KEEPING THE ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 45W.

$$
WALLACE




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