[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 08 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE APPEARS
TO BE MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED FOR SO LATE IN THE YEAR. WESTERLY SHEAR/UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AS THE RAINS
MOVE INTO ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N14W 6N26W 8N45W 9N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 6N32W-8N43W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 23W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND W CARIBBEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N INTO THE MID
WEST WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W IN THE GULF. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E UNITED STATES...REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THIS SCENARIO HAS
ESTABLISHED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS FAR S AS HONDURAS AND W OF 78W.
THIS HAS LEFT THE MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING S TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 19N78W THEN SW TO OFF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N75W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W THANKS TO THIS FRONT.

REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC...E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N70W N ALONG
20N67W TO NEAR 30N65W. THIS DIVERGENT FLOW WITH THE STRONG
TROUGH TO THE W HAS PRODUCED A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N68W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 17N75W TO THE S
CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI NEAR
20N73W ALONG 12N80W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA NEAR
11N84W. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 12N62W EXTENDING N TO 19N60W.
THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N55W TO 20N53W WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS. THE DIVERGENT FLOW FROM THIS
RIDGE AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO 16N60W AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC AND E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N50W. THIS IS STRENGTHENING
THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO
PUSHING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
12N FROM 32W-53W. THUS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 38W HAS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N28W. AT THE SURFACE...A
COMPLEX SYSTEM STEMS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N27W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 20N31W THEN W TO 18N43W THEN
DISSIPATES TO 19N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE
TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W. A
SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE 1008 MB LOW NW TO 31N39W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THE
ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 45W.

$$
WALLACE



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